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Russian oil exports to India have seen a significant decline following the announcement of US sanctions targeting Moscow’s oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. According to provisional tanker tracking data from Kpler, crude oil shipments from Russia to India dropped sharply to an average of 1.19 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week ending October 27, down from 1.95 million bpd in the previous two weeks. This sudden fall comes in the wake of the US imposing sanctions on October 22, which are set to be fully enforced by November 21. The sanctions specifically affect Rosneft and Lukoil, companies responsible for over half of Russia’s oil production and exports, and which previously accounted for more than two-thirds of India’s Russian oil imports.
Delving deeper, exports from Rosneft to India plunged from 1.41 million bpd in the previous week to 0.81 million bpd in the week ending October 27. Lukoil, meanwhile, had no recorded shipments to India during this period, a stark contrast to the 0.24 million bpd it supplied earlier. Given the transit time through the Suez Canal — the main route for Russian crude to Indian ports — which can be up to a month, this drop aligns with the US deadline for winding down dealings with these companies. Until November 21, deliveries are expected to remain steady due to previously contracted shipments.
The sanctions have already prompted major Indian refiners to rethink their sourcing strategies. HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) has announced a suspension of Russian oil imports, while Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the country’s largest refiner, has stated its intention to comply with all sanctions but has been non-committal about the future of its Russian oil imports. Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), which handles about half of India’s Russian crude imports, is still assessing the situation but has pledged to adhere fully to government guidance and compliance requirements.
The fear of secondary sanctions — penalties imposed by the US on entities engaging with sanctioned companies despite lacking direct US jurisdiction — looms large. While primary sanctions restrict American entities from dealings with Rosneft and Lukoil, secondary sanctions extend pressure globally, effectively compelling countries like India to steer clear of sanctioned firms. Because Indian refiners and banks are closely tied to the US financial system, including dollar-based trade and access to American markets, they are expected to exercise extreme caution to avoid potential penalties.
Russian crude accounts for roughly 35% of India’s total oil imports in 2025, making this disruption significant. Industry experts note that after the initial surge in imports before the sanctions deadline, purchases by Indian Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) and private refiners such as Reliance are expected to taper off. However, a complete halt in Russian crude imports seems unlikely in the near term. Attractive price margins and India’s geopolitical stance mean that Russian barrels will probably continue flowing, though through more complicated financial and logistical channels involving unsanctioned intermediaries.
To compensate for reduced Russian supplies, Indian refiners are likely to boost crude procurement from alternative regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, West Africa, and North America. Historically, India avoided importing oil from other US-sanctioned countries like Iran and Venezuela, and experts foresee a similar cautious approach towards Russia’s sanctioned oil companies. The evolving landscape suggests a challenging transition period for India’s oil sector, balancing compliance with sanctions while maintaining energy security amid geopolitical pressures.
