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Two recent polls from late October reveal sharply contrasting views on Maine’s 2026 U.S. Senate race, highlighting a highly competitive and contentious political environment. The first poll suggests that Graham Platner, an oysterman, could defeat Governor Janet Mills in the Democratic primary and then go on to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in the general election. However, the second poll paints a different picture, showing Collins comfortably beating Platner in a direct general election matchup after voters were informed about some controversial online statements Platner made years ago.
The first survey, conducted by the Maine People’s Resource Center between October 26 and 29, shows Platner leading Mills 41.0% to 39.2%, with 14.5% of likely voters still undecided. Meanwhile, 5.3% supported former congressional staffer Jordan Wood, who recently dropped out of the Senate race to run for a House seat. In a ranked-choice scenario between Platner and Mills, Platner garners 53.4% of the vote versus Mills’ 46.6%. When it comes to the general election, this poll indicates Platner would best Collins 44.8% to 40.9%, though Collins leads Mills 45.8% to 41.7%. The poll surveyed 783 Maine voters, with a margin of error of 3.5%. Notably, this poll was conducted by a branch of a progressive group where Platner’s new campaign manager used to work.
On the other hand, the second poll, conducted by Impact Research and commissioned by Emily’s List, offers a more critical outlook for Platner. This poll focused solely on the general election and didn’t touch on Mills’ chances. It centers on how Platner’s past social media posts, some deemed racist and sexist, have affected voter sentiment. After summarizing Platner’s platform and controversies, 51% of those polled favored Collins compared to 42% for Platner. When respondents were read excerpts from Platner’s problematic posts, Collins’ lead widened to 57% versus 38%. Even after hearing Platner’s apology and explanation, Collins maintained a 55% to 41% lead. This survey, with a 3.7% margin of error, involved 700 likely voters between October 22 and 27.
Platner initially emerged as a fresh progressive alternative to Mills but has faced significant backlash due to his past remarks and a controversial tattoo linked to a Nazi symbol, which he has since covered. His campaign has apologized, insisting those actions do not reflect who he is now. The contrasting poll results underscore the challenges Platner faces in overcoming negative perceptions while also showing the strength of Mills’ and Collins’ political bases.
These polls also reveal the influence of campaign-linked organizations, with each survey favoring the candidate aligned with the commissioning group’s interests. The Maine People’s Resource Center is connected to Platner’s team, while Emily’s List supports Mills and women candidates advocating for abortion rights. This dynamic adds another layer of complexity to interpreting poll outcomes amid a highly competitive and closely watched Senate race in Maine.
As the campaign progresses, voters in Maine will likely continue weighing scandals, policy stances, and candidate backgrounds, with the primary and general election still wide open. The conflicting polls highlight how quickly public opinion can shift, particularly when controversies come to light, making the upcoming months critical for all candidates involved.
