On Monday night in Belem, Brazil, the Australian team at the United Nations climate talks was feeling optimistic. Earlier that day, Chris Bowen, Australia’s Climate Change and Energy Minister, had confidently promoted Australia's bid to host next year’s COP31 conference in Adelaide. Turkey was the main competitor, fiercely pursuing the hosting rights as well. Bowen had declared firmly, "We’re not going anywhere," emphasizing Australia's commitment to securing the event. That evening, Bowen hosted a gathering for Australian diplomats, civil society members, and business leaders in the Australian pavilion inside the UN's "blue zone"—the central area of the sprawling COP campus. Due to limited catering options in the Amazon city, the event featured modest snacks like chips and Brazil nuts, complemented by local wines and beers. Despite Turkey’s stubborn stance, the Australian team felt confident. They had strong support from their UN group and backing from Pacific island nations. There was a widespread belief among the delegation that the bid would succeed, especially since Australia had already started substantive groundwork. However, things took a sharp turn overnight. Australians in Belem woke up to news that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had said back home that if Turkey refused to step down, Australia wouldn’t block their hosting. This caught many on the ground by surprise. Under UN rules, if the group responsible for selecting the host can’t agree, the hosting rights automatically go to the UN’s climate headquarters in Bonn, Germany. The Australian negotiators, who hadn’t been authorized to speak publicly, saw Albanese’s comments as a premature and unnecessary concession that undermined their effort. A seasoned COP veteran said the Australians were negotiating well and holding their ground, knowing Turkey had a pattern of folding only after extracting concessions. But with the Prime Minister seemingly briefing against them, Australian negotiators were put at a disadvantage before the Tuesday meetings even began. The lack of capital support was felt keenly; it’s tough to negotiate effectively when your own government signals retreat. By Wednesday, Bowen officially announced Turkey would host COP31 but revealed that Australia would still hold a significant role as “president of negotiations.” This position would give Australia authority over setting the agenda, appointing chairs, and preparing draft decision texts. Additionally, a pre-COP meeting would be held in the Pacific, focusing on directing finance to small island nations. While this deal had some positives, it was a disappointing end to a bid that began in 2022 with high hopes. The bid aimed to promote green investment and highlight Australia’s decarbonisation efforts amid growing global climate urgency, especially with the Biden administration prioritizing climate action. The bid was also seen as a strategic move to boost Adelaide’s profile and strengthen Australia’s diplomatic ties with Pacific nations vulnerable to climate change and courted by China. However, not everyone saw the outcome as a win. South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas expressed frustration, revealing he only learned about the government’s change of position shortly before the announcement. Some federal Labor MPs were also unhappy that Albanese didn’t show stronger support or even visit Belem, seeing it as part of a pattern where he distances himself from losing causes, referencing the Voice referendum and changes to superannuation. Conversely, some MPs welcomed the outcome, concerned about the political and financial risks of hosting a costly international event promoting renewable energy during tough economic times for many Australians. Estimates suggested the COP31 event in Australia could cost up to $2 billion, four times the $500 million spent on the Glasgow conference in 2021. Given Turkey’s intransigence, these MPs believed there wasn’t much Bowen or Albanese could have done differently, and that a climate conference relegated to Bonn would have been an even worse scenario. Behind the scenes, Bowen and his team knew the negotiations would be challenging. While Monday’s mood was upbeat, a senior Australian official said the team had been far more cautious over the weekend. Earlier in the year, officials had been more confident Turkey could be outmaneuvered. Australia’s earlier withdrawal from a 2019 bid after the UK offered incentives to Turkey is an example of the complexities involved. Some observers even speculated on Turkey’s motives, questioning whether President Erdoğan’s wife’s environmental concerns or geopolitical considerations involving Russia’s fossil fuel interests played a role in Turkey’s obstinance and the apparent disruption of the COP process.
